Topic 1: Continuation Betting

The profitability of every c-betting situation can be estimated by three steps:

1. Determining how much to bet
2. Calculating the required fold % of your opponents
3. Figuring out if they will fold often enough

Step 1
Determining how much to bet is fairly easy. Betting about 2/3 to 3/4 of the pot is optimal in most situations as it the near-perfect bet size where the bet is large enough to make opponents respect it, yet small enough not to chase away medium-strength hands. It is also a fairly standard bet size in today’s games, whereas pot sized bets usually get noticed and 1/2 pot bets tend to get called much lighter. Anything under 1/2 pot can get “spite called” or called extremely light because of the great odds (1/2 pot bet is laying 3:1 to the opponent, smaller bets give even greater odds). As a guideline, bet closer to 1/2 when there are more players in, as the monetary size of the bet will gain respect.

Step 2
Calculating the required fold % of your opponents is the easiest step, as it will be fully done in this article. When you make a bet that you don’t want called, you’re essentially saying “I bet this much that you will all fold,” and you would ideally like to know what odds you’re laying yourself. For example, 3/4 pot bet needs to win 43% of the time to break even; if they fold any more, you will show an immediate profit. If you’re facing two opponents, both of them must fold enough times so that, combined, they will be folding at least 43% of the time.

To save you the headache of having to calculate all these percentages on your own, here is a table of most common bet sizes and how often each villain must fold, on average, to break even:

* Note: this slightly underestimates opponent fold percentages, so you would like these numbers to be even higher.

For example, if you bet 2/3 of the pot facing 3 opponents, each opponent must fold more than 74% of the time, on average, for your bet to show an immediate profit. However, if one opponent is looser than the required minimum, the others must be tighter to make up for this. Continuing with the example, if one of your opponents only folds 60% of the time, the other two opponents must each fold more than 82% of the time. 82% is a pretty unreasonable expectation (this will be explained later), so you would conclude that the bet is not profitable.

You don’t have to memorize the table, but come back to it after you read the whole article and you will see which situations will rarely be profitable, which ones are marginal, and which ones will usually show a profit.

Step 3
Figuring out if they’ll fold often enough is the most difficult part. This is where real poker begins, and this is what the article is focused on.

According to computer simulations, a random hand hits a pair on the flop about 35% of the time. The obvious problems with this number is that villains are not seeing flops with all random hands, they will not continue with all pairs, they may continue with air, and they also flop draws. However, without a better estimate, 35% seems like a reasonable assumption as it looks like all those factors will roughly even out. So, with no other info on the opponent, you can assume that the baseline fold percentage is 65%. That is, on average an unknown villain will fold about 65% of the time to a normal sized bet (usually 3/4 pot). They may fold less often on some particular flops, but that will be explored later.

A better estimator of folding is PAHUD’s “Fold to Flop C-Bet”. You should be aware, however, that it may be skewed by low sample size. You should also consider the player’s VP$IP/PFR stats to see what style he’s playing. Unimaginative TAGs will usually be folding to c-bets 70%+ of the time. Nitty players will be 80%. Tricky TAGs may go in the low-mid 60s. Loose/bad players can either be fit-or-fold or gambly, so you need to check the Fold to Flop C-Bet to gauge how they’re playing. Some bad players will still be folding 70+% of the time, but others may be folding 30-50% on average.

These stats are averages, and are not can be higher or lower depending on specific situations. You should use them strictly as baselines and adjust that based on the situation.

The Board
The biggest factor, especially at lower stakes, is the board. Since most players are primarily concerned with their own holdings, the flop will influence how they will act on the hand.

First, the board should influence your bet size. If a cheaper bet will accomplish the same thing as a larger bet, then you should obviously take the cheaper bet and increase your odds. Keep in mind your table image, you don’t want to bet noticeably less when you miss and noticeably bigger when you hit.

The best example of how the board influences your action is in a multi-way pot. In a 4-handed or more pot, most opponents will be playing fit or fold, so a 1/2 pot bet will usually get called just as often as a 3/4 pot bet. When you’re holding a made hand, you also don’t need to bet bigger as 1/2 pot bet will usually be enough to let you get your stack in by showdown should you choose to, and at the same time keep the pot under some control with a marginal hand, so you can make your bluffs and value bets on the flop around 1/2 pot.

Another profitable example is Ace-high dry flops. You should be c-betting less in these situations for two reasons. One, your opponent(s) will more inclined to throw away weaker pairs than TP because the Ace is such a common holding card. Two, Ace is also a common holding card of your opponent, so you need to better your odds by betting less. Also, you shouldn’t be stabbing at Ace-high flops multi-way very often for the latter reason.

One potential pitfall is the advice that you should bet more on draw heavy boards. Most players will not fold draws on the flop regardless of your bet size, so all you’re doing is lowering your odds without affecting their calling ranges. It’s probably best to c-bet the same amount, and if you feel a flush draw or a straight draw is a big part of their range, take another stab on the turn (ideally a card that scares them). This way, you at least have a good chance of getting them to fold.

You also need to consider your opponent’s estimated range and determine how likely it is to have hit him. If the board is more likely than average to have hit your opponent, you decrease his fold %, if it’s less likely to have hit him, you increase it.

Here are some general pointers:
Obviously, the more dry the board, the less likely it is to hit your opponents. Good dry boards are usually 1 high card, 1 mid card, and 1 low card with not flush draw (ex: Kd 8s 2h). Paired boards are also usually dry (ex: Td Th 6s). Wet boards tend to be middle cards with a flush draw (ex: 9h 8h 6s) and are more likely to hit your opponents. 3-flush boards are actually better than 2-flush boards because people will be reluctant to play marginal hands and chase 1-card flush draws without a face card (ex: Th 8h 5h).

TAG callers are usually playing pairs and drawing hands, and they rarely call pre-flop raises with dominated high cards like KTo or Q9o. Therefore, high card dry flops are likely to intimidate them and at the same time not hit them. For example, AK7 rainbow shouldn’t get called very often by good TAGs. Middle card flops, on the other hand, connect perfectly with a TAG’s range, especially if there is a flush draw out as well, so 679 is a horrible flop to c-bet. Low cards and paired boards are unlikely to have hit them, though they may take a card off with Pocket Pairs. However, these boards are also unlikely to have hit you, so this is where observant TAGs will be making their moves. These boards are the most profitable c-bet spots vs unimaginative TAGs/nits, but this is where you have to be on the lookout vs decent players.

Loose/bad players often call with dominated hands, so high card flops do hit their ranges well, especially since unpaired hole cards come up so much more often on average than PPs and SCs. These boards may actually be the worst ones to c-bet against loose/bad players. Mid boards are still bad because PPs and SCs are still a good part of their range, and they may also call one bet with overcards. Low and paired boards are probably the best because you shouldn’t be expecting to get bluffed by these guys.

LAG players are probably the worst ones to c-bet. A ton of flops hit them, and they’re liable to play back at any point. You basically have to play poker against these guys and look for spots to re-steal, double barrel, and otherwise try to gain back some of your equity. Don’t get out of line though, as these guys face this regularly, so you’re playing on their turf.

Player Actions
Checks in front are more likely to be missed hands, so you’d obviously like to see all your opponents act before you to get the most info. For some players, leads into pre-flop raisers signify marginal hands trying to see where they’re at, so sometimes you can profitably raise these donk leads and take the money they give you.

Stack Sizes
Stay away from short-stacks. Many will go with any pair and less. Since most TAGs tend to c-bet too much, some shorties adopted a strategy of raising and check/raising c-bets very light. However, some are scared money, but it’s difficult to establish which is which until you see the guy shove garbage.

Your Image
If you have a bad table image, the players respect your c-bets less and so their average fold to c-bet naturally drops. Conversely, if you have a good image, they will stay away. This affects different players differently. Multi-tablers probably aren’t noticing your table image as much as your stats, though if you happen to put pressure on them across several tables, they may take a stand at any table.

Table image adds a whole another dimension to poker and cannot possibly be covered in this article.

Some Interpretations
If you look at the chart, even a pot-sized bet needs to only succeed 50% heads-up to be break-even. Combine that with the baseline of 65% fold % of an unknown player and you see that c-betting HU is obviously successful in most situations. Basically, you should be c-betting almost all but the worst flops. A c-bet should be standard here unless you find enough reasons otherwise. One reason could be for your table image, especially if you’ve been c-betting this player a lot.

A c-bet into 4 opponents, however, needs the average player to fold 77% of the time even with a 1/2 pot sized bet to be break-even. You can clearly see that this will require a much better than average situation vs unknown players. In this situation your standard play should be to give up the pot, unless you find enough reasons otherwise. This situation will usually be the standard “stab”, where everyone checks and you’re last or near-last to act, and the board is dry. You shouldn’t be expecting players to play back without the goods. Honestly, if you never c-bet without the goods here, you’re not passing that much profit at all, but it is very easy to c-bet too much in this spot and actually lose money. Whereas HU you don’t c-bet to add deception, here you’re c-betting to add deception, so your turn range after a bet is not always a made hand.

You can see that c-betting into 3 opponents isn’t a whole lot better. You should be doing it more often than into 4, but again you’ll need to find reasons to c-bet.

The real gray area is facing two opponents. This is where experience and the understanding of the above factors will get you to make near-optimal decisions.

More Info

• DODGYKEN recorded a nice video on c-betting, click here to download it.
• C-Bet Examples:
• DODGYKEN
• LuckySOB
• Dice
• Peten2toms