Topic 1: Continuation Betting and Floating

Warning- If you are a 1st level thinker please stay that way and avoid reading this material!

Some C-Bet Math
(tl;dr warning)
by DWarrior

I’m pretty sure everyone knows that continuation betting is betting the flop after raising pre. I think most TAGs c-bet way too much, as I routinely see 17/14 and the like with c-bet stats of 85-95%. I think this is very exploitable by the observant players and good hud-bots. I’ve worked my c-bet percentage down to 70%, which I’m told is a good number, and I’m constantly assessing flop situations to see where NOT to c-bet, as my default is still to bet out. I think the other UF2Bers have written good ideas on the subject, and instead of repeating them, I will try and explore c-betting using math.

First, the way I calculated my c-bet % is by going to PT’s General Info tab, hit More Detail button on the right, scroll down to the “First Action on Flop After a Pre-flop Raise:” list. You’ll see the different actions. Look for Bet and Check. The format is:
Bet: 58.94 % (323 times out of 548)
Check: 25.73 % (141 times out of 548)
You should only be concerned with the number of times you Bet and Checked, as the other options are actions after a donk lead. You want to find out how often you Bet out of the times you Bet or Check, so for me it’s 323/(323+141)=70%. For maximum accuracy, you can add the Check/Raise to the denominator, but for me it’s negligible.

I want to say that I c-bet the vast majority of the time when I hit a hand or a good draw out of position, the only exceptions being vs extreme shorts stacks who I think are going to go in or stack off lighter later on, or maybe if I’m tangling with a 90vpip megadonk or an overly tricky opponent. In position I still c-bet the vast majority when I hit, with the same exceptions as above and maybe sometimes if I have a good draw (NFD) and don’t want to get check/raised or would like to keep players in, or when I’m slowplaying a monster and they can improve to second best hands. I do not have any systematic ways of checking my good hands. LuckySOB threw out a statistic of c-betting 80% of the flops you hit; if I had to guess mine I’d say it’s closer to 95%. This basically leaves my checking range unprotected, but the flops I check are usually either too dangerous to check with made hands (ex: KJ8 2f HU), or they’re protected by the amount of players on the flop (if I check, the pot’s all yours if you can fold out the other 2 guys). This may be a leak, but I’d be interested to know how people are exploiting this and how checking made hands in the above situations can be profitable at my stakes. This will be a topic to revisit as I move up.

Now, let’s try and see the math of why you wouldn’t want to c-bet certain situations. My c-bets are around 3/4th of the pot (I usually c-bet on the higher side with made hands and on the lower side with missed hands), so we’ll use that for our calculations. The breakeven point for a 3/4 pot c-bet is 43%. The formula is 4x-3(1-x)=0, where x is the probability to win the pot, solve for x.

So when you c-bet without a hand, you must get them to fold more than 43% of the time to make this profitable. That’s a pretty easy expectation when you’re heads up, but what about when the pot is 3-handed, 4-handed, or more? In a 3-way pot, both of your opponents must fold enough so they collectively fold 43% of the time. Let’s see how often each one must fold, on average. We’ll assume the two events are independent, but since they’re really not (when one folds, the other is slightly more likely to have a hand), this will actually overestimate our fold equity. To compute the probability of two independent events occurring, you must multiply their probabilities together. Let’s say the two opponents play exactly the same, and will fold the flop to your c-bet x amount of time. Since there are two, and we’re looking to have combined fold equity of .43, the formula is: x2=.43, solve for x. The average player must now fold more than 66% of the time to make this profitable, quite a bit above the initial 43%. I’ll spare you the math for more opponents:

These numbers have a couple of flaws aside from the independence assumption. Firstly, if one of the players is looser than average, the other players must be even tighter. For example, if on a particular 3-way flop someone will only fold 50% of the time, the other opponent must fold 86% of the time. Another flaw is that you’ll be c-betting a lower % in relation to the pot with more players to the flop, because the monetary amount will “look” bigger to the unsavvy players and won’t give high enough implied odds for the better players. For example, if you’re only betting 2/3 in a 3-way pot, you only need everyone to fold 40% of the time, thus individually you need the average players to fold 63% of the time (a bit better than a 3/4 psb, though negligible). And if you can get away with a 1/2 pot bet, you only need to them to fold 59% each.

Now my plan was to calculate the odds of certain ranges connecting with the board enough to continue. Unfortunately, this is a much more complicated problem than I initially thought and so I cannot present any specific numbers at this time. I’ll try and find a calculator that does this, and if not I’ll consider making one (though it’ll be a tough project).

Anyway, let’s estimate some call percentages. Two unpaired cards will flop a pair or better 33% of the time, but not all pairs are created equal. Most players today will take a card off with mid pairs, even bottom pairs, plus there are straight and flush draws to consider. Pocker Pairs (PPs) will only improve to a set 12% of the time, but some players will peel a card off with them 80+% of the time.

It seems to me that a mediocre opponent who overvalues medium-strength hands will find a hand to continue with for hand strength alone roughly 35% of the time, a commonly used estimate. This means in a vacuum, it’s definitely +EV to c-bet every flop HU and often 3-way. However, constantly c-betting observant opponents will cause them to start to play back, either floating your or raising you right on the flop, which can quickly send your fold equity plummeting. Moreover, the better players already have some standards for bluffing, and worse players may very well, too. On the other hand, solid players usually aren’t looking to flop just any pair, so their calling range based on hand strength is somewhat lower. Their calling ranges may include medium to low PPs, SCs, and some broadways. That means on dry flops (K84), most of their range got no help so when they’re playing back, their range is fairly polarized (they probably either hit a set, or are on a steal).

Perhaps the easiest way to get this number is to use the Fold To Flop C-Bet on PAHUD. Solid players will, at my stakes, have this stat in the high 60s to low 80s, and it’s not uncommon to see higher from the nitty players. Weak players often have numbers in the 50s (meaning it’s unprofitable to c-bet them multi-way), and megadonks often have 30s (meaning you should rarely c-bet). Take this raw number and adjust it to the board. On a dry board, a low 80 solid player should be folding much more often, and his range should be fairly polarized. On a wet board, that same player might go down to a 60, and players who are high 60s may become 50s.

Additionally, seeing how players act before you is an obvious advantage. Some players, especially weaker ones, like to lead flops whenever they hit TP or MP to “see where they’re at”. Thus, players checking before you are less likely to have a hand. Couple this with the fact that you can steal the pot later by double barreling, and you should be more apt to c-bet once some players have already checked on the flop. Also, Observant player will be less likely to pull moves on you in multi-way pots, especially if there is a player still to act after them, so you can increase their fold percentage. Another thing to consider is if you’re last to act in a multi-way pot, people may put you on a steal if you bet, which obviously lowers their fold percentages.

I think as you play against more observant players, you have to begin to watch your ranges closer. For example, if I’m c-betting 70% and only hitting a playable hand 35% of the time, half of my range is air. You then need double barrels, turn checks with made hands, and re-steals to protect your c-bets.

I think against observant players, dry boards and low boards are no longer optimal, as they invite steals. Then you get into float steals and re-steals, which are beyond my area of comfort, and will be topics for the future.

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The Continuation Bet

By: Joe "Dice" Danfield

A continuation bet is a continuation of preflop aggression. When one is first to open a pot, one is entitled to the role of the aggressor. Consistent with preflop aggression, it is commonplace in today’s games for the preflop aggressor to follow up his aggression with a bet on the flop. With continuation betting more prevalent than ever in today’s games, it is important to understand the factors that ultimately dictate a continuation bet. For those unaware of optimal continuation bet strategy, an ill-advised continuation bet can be a marginal to a money losing play. Rather than importing my thoughts on the subject onto this paper, I will rely on factual information to provide you with the logical train of thought when considering a continuation bet. As the famous saying goes, “Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, but teach a man how to fish and he will eat for a lifetime.”

In the most basic sense, the continuation bet aims at completing one of two goals: to build the pot if you hit and to take down the pot if you miss. The first of the two goals is obvious. Value bet your made hands. This piece will focus on the trickier of the two goals, and that is taking down the pot when you miss.

The primary aim of the continuation bet should be to win at least 50% of the pots without a hand. When continuation betting with air, your hand is essentially a bluff and it should be treated as one. A bluff involves two major components: having a range of hands in mind that your opponent might have and betting enough to get your opponent to fold those hands. While in a hand you must decide which hands from his range you are targeting. Then size your bet to allow you opponent to correctly fold based on pot and implied odds. In bet sizing, the goal should be to bet the minimum amount it will take to get the job done. This provides one with the least amount of risk and the most on their return. The following table will demonstrate what percentage of the time you must win the pot with a particular bet size.

• Half pot sized bet (PSB): must win at least 34% for +EV
• ¾ PSB: 41%
• Full PSB: 51%

There is no formula to assess the optimal bet size. One must rely on unpredictability, assessment of board texture and opponent to comply with optimal continuation betting strategy. In a heads up pot, on a whiffed board, an example of unpredictability follows: 20% of the time a check behind, 40% of the time a ¾ PSB, and the remaining 40% of the time a 4/5 PSB. This randomization creates the effect of unpredictability, which will keep opponents off balance and constantly playing a guessing game. Finding the right amount to bet is not a scientific problem. It is a part of a constant psychological battle between you and your opponent in compliance with board texture. You must see the bet from the perspective of your opponents. In “No Limit Hold ‘Em: Theory and Practice” David Sklansky assess that one’s train of thought before making a bluff should be along the following lines: “If I bet $X, what range will my opponent put me on, what will he view his pot and implied odds as, and will he see his hand vs. my range as profitable?” Once again, there is no formula which will tell how much it takes to get the job done, because each case must be analyzed separately, yet one should chose the minimum bet size you think will win the pot with the least amount of risk.

A primary consideration for continuation betting is your current table image, or credit. Image or credit is another way of expressing your degree of fold equity you have at the table or with another opponent. When you first arrive at a table, you are given credit. In other words, when you sit down at a table your first goal should be to establish a good image. When one wins many hands without having to go to showdown or one does happen to show down a bluff, your credit (image) is negatively affected. Do not get all worked up when you start to lose credit. This is what separate good players from bad ones. A good player will simply adjust his range to conform to his credit. With bad credit one must tighten their preflop range and reduce their bluffing frequency. The advantage to having bad credit is that it will be easier for your big hands to get paid off. The disadvantages to it are that it forces you into playing a super tight game, very selective bluffing, which thus diminishes the value of position. On the other hand, with a good image you are afforded the luxury of more fold equity than normal. Good credit will allow you to open your preflop range and steal more pots. Do not get too carried away, though. If you have good credit and you are facing a strong line without much of a hand, send it into the muck- he has you beat. A good image will promote your opponents to play in a straightforward manner and we all know that predictable poker is our best friend. Switching gears based on credit becomes more important as you move up in limits. Honestly assessing your image/ credit will allow you to make clearer reads on your opponents intentions, thus ultimately allowing you to make better plays.

These are merely considerations for continuation betting with air. Remind yourself of the adage made famous by Lou Krieger: “Nothing works all the time in poker except value betting the nuts on the river. In any other situation there is a tactic that can successfully counter it some of the time.”

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C-bet:
Many professionals say it and I am a firm believer that 95% percent of the time the right play is simple ABC poker. C-betting is ABC poker. If you raise it up in position and get called you can profitably bet the flop when checked to when you didn’t connect. The problem that we all encounter are the players who don’t give up when we haven’t connected and knowing when we should or shouldn’t C-bet against such villains. This is where c-betting becomes non-ABC. I have not mastered this fine art but plan to begin intensive study. I believe the c-bet is most effective in position HU and I will use it 98% of the time unless I am facing a short stack aggressive player or a player who I know to have shown resistance. In such spots the c-bet has lost value and I shut down unless I connect or the texture of the board is in line with what I perceive my villain to believe my range is. Multi-way pots I am less inhibited to c-bet and I do so depending upon position and flop texture as well as preflop action. C-betting OOP, this is a trouble spot for many. HU I am firing unless I hate the flop and my villain is 50% fold to cbet. That said when I do fire and am called you have to double barrel with both air and made hands. This is where I segue into floating. I don’t believe most villains are actually applying such thoughts knowingly but essentially they are calling with midpair or a gut-shot in hopes you check the turn if you missed in which case they take the pot away. There are two ways to take the power back against such players, one is to double barrel with air the other is to check the turn with a made hand. Both of these tactics can be used in and out of position. Checking with a made hand in my experience has proven to be very profitable. More times then not my villain will bluff the river or call me light with a hand I have crushed that he most likely dumps on the turn. With that said you can see why double barreling is effective. A concept that is less talked about is cbetting after 3betting which I think you have to always do unless you are in a multi way pot. The size of your c-bet can be smaller in relation to the pot as the pot will be large due to the preflop action. I will commonly fire 2/3 pot with both monsters and air here. The power of your cbet post 3bet is even more due to the psychological effect of the 3bet. You have taken a stand an reraised which isn’t to be taken lightly by most. You are representing a big hand so why wouldn’t you cbet? Flop texture I believe is almost irrelevant unless you put villain on AK-AQ and an AK or Q is on the board and you are ready to check fold your under pair.
Floating:
(This is where I segue into floating. I don’t believe most villains are actually applying such thoughts knowingly but essentially they are calling with midpair or a gut-shot in hopes you check the turn if you missed in which case they take the pot away. ) A very powerful tool not to be over used. The float is best utilized when you have decided to call a preflop raise with a marginal holding such as 98 suited. The preflop raiser fires a cbet at you and you have missed or picked up a slim draw. This is where HUD becomes a powerful tool, you can take both his PFR and CBET #’s into account and decide from there. If he is cbetting 75% he isn’t hitting the flop every time he leads and you essentially call looking to take the pot away on the turn if checked to. Brian Townsend has wrote a brief yet precise article in Cardplayer mag on this topic. Floating is a tool I am less familiar with and have begun to incorporate into my game. Floating is something that I feel at 100NL and below(as this is my highest stake) can be utilized but the situation must be ideal. Stick to floating TAG or LAG players who you observe giving up on the turn to other non thinking floaters this is an indication that when they check the turn after a cbet you can successfully take the pot away from them. Look to float in position as floating OOP is an option but extremely hard to master. I prefer a flop check raise if I suspect the cbet to be weak.
This is no where near as in-depth and insightful as it can be. The UF2B will be experimenting and reading up on these two topics and reporting back our finding at the end of the week sometime. As DodgyKen stated if you want to drop us a comment with ideas or links please do. This is for us as well as you.
-Noeledge

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Continuation betting

Firstly, one of the most important things to consider is the texture of the flop. For example, a C-bet is much more likely to take the pot down on a K82 rainbow flop than a QJT flop with two hearts. It’s much more likely that someone will have a piece of the second flop, whereas it’s hard to call a bet on the first flop without a king. Flops like 763 are also flops that I don’t always bet because people tend to put you on high cards if you raise pre-flop, and a C-bet is less likely to work. This doesn’t mean that I’ll never bet dangerous flops – I take into consideration the other factors below when deciding whether to bet an action flop or not.

Another factor that’s very important is the number of players seeing the flop with you. If the pot is heads up, I’m much more likely to make the C-bet. If there are 2 or more players seeing the flop with you, I tend to only C-bet with a made hand (top/2nd pair) or a good draw.

When I say that I’d bet with a good draw, I’m talking about a flush draw and overcards, or a flush draw with a gutshot – basically draws with quite a lot of turn cards that I’m going to like to see, as well as draws that I can still play if I get check-raised. Now, if I flop just a gutshot, I might be inclined to check behind on the flop as I don’t want to be check-raised and not be able to take a shot at hitting the nuts. This can be opponent dependent, and I glance at their check-raise flop % to get an idea of if I’m likely to be played back at. When out of position, it makes it a little tougher to play because you can bet a good draw, miss the turn, and be in a tricky situation. I’d still make the bet hoping to take it down there and then though.

Another important factor is your opponent’s Fold to C-bet %. I like to have this on my HUD display as I use it a lot. If an opponent folds to C-bets more than 70-75% of the time, I’m going to be firing at pretty much every flop, regardless of texture. If they only fold to C-bets 50% of the time, or less, I’m going to be much less likely to C-bet against them (even in HU pots), and I’ll probably restrict it to just the best boards.

They’re my general ideas at the moment about C-betting. I feel that I C-bet a good amount of the time at the moment, and I also think I’m pretty good at spotting where it isn’t appropriate. One thing I’m looking to improve on this week is knowing when to fire a 2nd barrel. Against some opponents, though, you know that they’re calling your flop bet weak. This is fine if you have a hand (even as little as 2nd pair) and are in position as you can often bet the turn and check the river, or check the turn and call a river bet (after inducing a bluff). This isn’t really double-barrelling though in my opinion – this is just betting your hand for value against draws or worse hands. I only tend to double-barrel with nothing if the board changes in a way that looks like it obviously helped my hand.

I really want to improve on when I can fire twice with air and take it away from an opponent who obviously has a better hand than me (or an opponent that is trying to float). For example, if I raise and a TAG cold-calls pre-flop, the flop comes 972, I bet and he calls, it’s likely he has something like 88 or 66-33. This is the type of spot where I think firing twice might be successful as a lot of these guys will call once in case you have overcards and are just making the standard C-bet, but they’ll fold to further pressure. I also think that firing twice against a draw-heavy flop when the turn pairs might be successful as players are less inclined to continue with a draw once the board pairs.

Floating

This is definitely an area that I can improve on. I very rarely float – in fact the spots where I do float aren’t even really floats. An obvious example would be if I cold-called with a small pair and the flop was rags. Here I might call a bet on the flop and see if he checks the turn. This isn’t really floating though as I’m doing it based on the fact that I may have the best hand.

When I think of the difficulties I face when someone calls my flop bet and I have nothing or a marginal hand, it makes me think that you could almost profitably float the TAGs on 80% of flops. I’m not sure if I’m correct in thinking this, but I feel that the tighter TAGs are probably prime candidates for floating as they know how to fold a hand. I also think you really need to be in position to float as it relies on them checking the turn for you to bet.

I think good spots for floating are as follows:
· You’re in the BB and the SB open-raises. Any dry flop is probably good to float on.
· A TAG opens and you cold-call in position. Again, any dry flop is probably good to float on. Also, a flop with a draw may give you chance to float and bluff if a scare card hits.
· Any time you’ve cold-called and you flop some sort of weak draw. Floating is probably good here as you have another way to win if you hit your outs. With a stronger draw, raising would most likely be a better play.

So this week my main areas for focus are recognising spots where a double-barrel will be profitable, and finding good spots to float. I’m also interested in finding alternative techniques to prevent someone floating me (aside from double-barrelling). I’ll be reading any articles I can find on the subjects (feel free to post links in the comments if you find any), as well as discussing hands with the rest of the group, and posting any interesting/good/bad spots I attempted to double-barrel or float in.

; DODGYKEN

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Cbetting

Cbetting or continuation betting is continuing to bet the flop after you raised preflop in an attempt to take the pot then and there regardless of your hand. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1337423

Cbetting is like a bottle of JD, it's a good thing in moderation, but too much and you get all messed up. When we first learn to play, many of us are scared to make that Contiuation Bet (cbet) without a decent hand. We soon learn how often we miss flops though, and are playing too weak if we just give up when we miss. This is where cbettingcomes to play. By making a cbet we are getting 2 desired results. First, many times our opponenets miss the flop and will just fold to our cbet regardless of our handstrenght. Second, our opponents are notice us cbetting and will not always know if we hit or missed the flop, allowing us to get paid off more often when we do hit. My first experience with cbetting was so good, I became a cbet junkie, doing it 100% of the time regardless of position, flop texture, or opponent stack or stats. I soon learned that this was a way too bleed myself of all my chips. Cbetting is a wonderful thing, but it needs to be done correctly to work well.

When I first get to a table, I like to set an impression of a bigger LAG than I am. One way to accomplish this is to come in cbetting every hand. Sometimes this works for quite a few hands, and sometimes I get called or raised the first time. Either way, I like to come in cbetting 100% of the flops I PFR into until everyone quits folding. Then I adjust to my guide lines that I now have for cbetting. These include cbetting the following......

• Unconnected flops such as K83 rainbow.....it's most likely to miss your opponent
• Most Ace flops.....I like a bit smaller than normal cbet here. Most A holdings will always call, and most non A holdings will fold to a smallerbet here. My usual cbet with a flopped A is 1BB less than normal, but I also apply this to when I do have an A.
• TAG/NIT players.......what the hell, they're tight, use it against them.
• Players that fold over 65% to cbets (use this PT stat)......if they have a history of folding to cbets, then away we go.
• Small flops such as 3 4 8 rainbow when the caller is UTG or MP......most players are playing larger cards from UTG or MP.
• Draw heavy boards that I hit good or I have the draw myself.....I base my cbet on the strength of my draw. For intance, I'm not cbetting with my 9 7 when the flopcomes TJQ.
• And 80% of the flops I do hit......don't cbet all the flops you hit, you become too predictable. Predictablity is the death of a poker player.
  

My guidelines for when to not cbet are pretty much the obvious opposites....

• Draw heavy boards I missed......most opponents are drawing with or without odds, don't bother to cbet here. That said I do cbet 1BB larger with my good draws or made hands with draw heavy boards. For the same reason, most opponents will still go for draw without proper odds. Just make sure you don't give them implied odds by paying themoff when they do hit.
• Muliway flops....most my cbets are into HU pots, but you will find certain situations that you can cbet into a muliway flop and it usually requires position.
• Calling stations.....there's a reason they are called "Calling stations".
• 20% of the time I do hit.....don't want your opponents to think everytime you don't cbet, they can just take the pot away.
  

Once I start to use these, I of course alter my play throughout the session to adjust for the unique play of my opponents as you should with any part of your game. One thingI really watch for is the guy that likes to play any Ace. They are usually easy to spot, and of course I don't want to cbet this guy when an A does flop. Even if I hold an A myself I won't cbet often. I want him to fire away and convince himslef that his Ace is good. I also don't like to play for stacks with this guy with just my Ace and goodkicker. Too often I see this guy beat AK with A6 when he hits two pair. Keep the pots smaller with him when you are just on the A yourself, even with the better kicker. This holds true for many hands with donkey calling stations. They like to play a lot of hands and call down with middle pair, bottom pair, or even Ace high....BUT REMEMBER....they call down with those hands. When that guy is raising or calling large raises willing to play for stacks, he's not on middle pair.

Floating

Another important part of the game that goes hand in hand with cbetting is floating. Many people have different ideas on floating, but the true meaing of floating is calling with nothing with the intention of raising or betting after check on a later street to take it away. This is where you use you're opponents cbetting against him. Floating can be used well agianst opponents that like to cbet a lot. The following hand is one that is boarder line value bet and float ..http://www.pokerhand.org/?1337399

Here is a good example of an oppenent TRYING to float me due to how much I steal blinds and cbet. http://www.pokerhand.org/?1337299 This next hand I was floating in the sense that I planed on check raising the turn, but when he checks behind my river bet turns more into a value bet rather than a float. It does give an example of how a float might work though... http://www.pokerhand.org/?1337441

When a flop comes unconnected like mentioned above......K83....this is the time a cbetting player will almost always fire. This is also the time where you can float this player. Calling his cbet and then bet after he checks the turn or raise his 2nd barrel. Floating works well for the same reason cbetting works. Most times your opponent misses the flop, so now it's time to take it away from him.

Floating is something that takes a little more time and patience to do correctly, and gets more costly when done incorrectly. So take the time to see who is cbetting too often at a table, and target them with your floating bets. This is also something you don't want to do with as much frequincy as cbetting, but when you find a player this works on it is profitable.

I like to float players that have VPIP and PFR stats of a standard TAG or LAG with a small gap in those 2 stats. Players like a 16/12 upto around25/19. These are the players that are raising with a wide range that like to cbet as often as they can.....players like us acctually. If done in moderation, these players arenot usually going to play back at you without a hand. Again, floating is a part of you game you need to use in moderation. Unlike cbetting that which I think is beneficial at any level, floating is more level dependant. I don't think floating shouldn't be too much of your game at 50NL, but at 100NL you need to start working this into your game. At100NL it becomes profitable if used correct, but more importantly you need to use it at 100NL so that you can be ready for it when you move to 200NL.

Two of the largest diffences I've noticed from 100NL to 200NL is the amount of 3Betting and the amount of floating going on. When you know what changes to expect between levels, you need to parctice at your level prior to moving up. That way when you make the move, you understand and are familiar with the moves. It is just as important to realize who is floating and cbetting you as it is to do it to others. Succesful floating is one of the most satisfing ways to win a pot, but a horriable way to lose, so use it wisely.

LuckySOB