Poker swings.

Poker Swings

This article is going to focus on the types of “bad” swings we encounter throughout playing poker. The points I’m looking to focus on include:

• What causes swings
• How often do they happen
• How big will they be
• How can you stop them

What causes swings?

First let us look at what a swing is. Simply a run of consistently losing more than normal. A swing is not a run of bad luck always. It can be and is probably more often a run of bad play. In poker we play to maximize our winnings from positive expectation situations, meaning making plays that will win in the long run. The swings are what happen between now and the long run.

One common cause of a swing is mathematical. If a situation can happen, eventually it will. It is mathematically possible to lose with your AA vs KK twice in a row, so if you play enough, expect it at some point in time. This would be a down swing, yes a very short one, but still a down swing all the same. Now a situation like this can often cause a player to play worse than they normally would over a few hundred or even thousand hands and turn a 2 hand down swing into a large down swing.

The 2 graphs are a perfect example of this. The top graph is from a winning player that has great control of his game and plays close to his “A” game no matter how bad things get. It shows in his swings which are frequent but small. The bottom graph is from another winning player that admits to tilting a bit after a cooler or 2. And although a winning player, the swings are amplified to be much larger than bad luck or mathematics would cause them to be.

I believe the biggest part of swings to simply be a run of bad play, usually following a short run of bad outcomes in favorable situations. But there are a few other things that can cause bad swings, such as playing tired, drunk, poor game selection, or playing in a bad mood. You may say these aren’t swings, just bad times to play. But anything that causes a loss is part of what can cause a bad swing.

Yes it is possible to endure large swings when playing your 100% “A” game, but they are fewer than many wish to admit. Many things cause a bad swing, but it’s mostly the player that causes them to be so big.

How often do they happen?

Well this is not really something you can answer, because it’s never consistent. Part of controlling how often they happen is a large difference in the skill of a player. A top player can expect to see 5 buy in swings happen every 30,000 hands. While a good player can expect to see swings of the same size twice as often and many times much larger than just 5 buy ins.

Two large factors in the frequency of bad swings will be the style/aggression of your play along with your ability to control playing you “A” game.

Again, if we focus on the 2 graphs, we see that 2 top players encounter swings as different frequencies and different sizes. Although both show decent winnings, the one that controls swings obviously can win quite a bit more.

How big will they be?

Again, not an easy typical answer to this question. It’s another player dependent situation. I’m not an expert on knowing the situations everyone has been through, but I can comment based on my observations of many winning players graphs include the 2 shown here.

It seems quite common that players encounter swings on occasion of 10 buy ins along with often runs in the 5 buy in range. At any rate, our focus should not be on how large we can expect a downswing to be, but on how we can get out of it ASAP.

How can you stop them?

Well if you are a top notch emotion controlling grade A player as the player from the top chart is, you don’t have to do anything. Just keep playing and it will end. But for the remaining 99.9% of us, there’s more to it.

The best advice that can be given for getting out of a bad swing is simple, quit playing. That’s it. No don’t quit poker, just quit for the day. Get your mind off it and do something else. Preferably something you enjoy. Quit thinking poker, don’t study poker, don’t review your hands, don’t sweat someone, just quit for the day. All those things just mentioned you shouldn’t do are good things to do……..tomorrow.

If you refuse to quit for the day, or come back the next day to the same results, get help. Have someone watch you play. Many players play better when being watched, they fear making dumb plays and will focus more on their “A” game. This can come in the form of a coach, friend, spouse, or a CR member that likes to trade sweat sessions.

Be honest. Don’t tell yourself along with others that is all bad cards. Look through those hands and really pick yourself apart. You can’t improve your game if you are not honest about where it is. Don’t just look at the big hands either. Pay attention to the little ones. When a bit upset from a cooler, it’s possible to spew a lot of money over playing too many small pots and causing a large downswing of many many small pots.

If you just can’t seem to pull out of a swing, get a coach right away. I think any poker player that is serious about playing should be getting coaching at all times. But during a long down swing you should defiantly be paying someone to help you rather than paying your opponents off just to play you.

I hope this will help you understand bad swings. Obviously we focused more on tilting than swings, but really that’s all swings are. A way to say tilting without taking the blame. You can see from many top players graphs that swings happen to everyone. So next time you are on one yourself, come back and visit this article, remember you are not alone and focus on getting out of it.